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When Vladimir Putin traveled to the South Asian nation in the previous decade, the international order was markedly different. That short trip, curtailed by the pandemic, focused on discussions on economic and military ties between the two leaders.

Not long after, the full-scale invasion of its neighbor would turn the Russian leader into a global pariah, greatly limiting his overseas engagements.

Furthermore, that era came before a significant shift in US-India relations, marked by contentious rhetoric and the introduction of heavy trade tariffs.

"In this context, the importance of Putin's journey to meet Modi is profound, serving as a signal of enduring ties and a rejection of outside coercion," experts emphasize.

A Pivotal Moment for Two Major Powers

The summit takes place at a crucial time. The Kremlin leader comes after rejecting latest peace proposals for Ukraine, confident due to claimed gains by Russian forces.

"From Moscow's perspective, the key significance of this engagement is its simple happening," stated a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It suggests a return to a form of normal international relations."

From Delhi's standpoint, the risks are even higher. The country navigates a challenging geopolitical climate, characterized by a semi-isolationist United States, a diminished Russia, and an assertive China.

This delicate balance was highlighted just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats released a public commentary criticizing Russia's commitment to peace. This prompted a sharp rebuke from Indian officials, who called it an inappropriate diplomatic practice.

The Enduring Challenge from the North

The historical partnership dates back to the Soviet period and is firmly rooted, with Moscow historically being Delhi's primary arms provider. This alliance was generally accepted by the West until a change in approach.

For years, Western nations ignored India's substantial purchases of discounted Russian oil. Yet, in the wake of stalled diplomacy, pressure mounted, leading to punitive tariffs and a major chill in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"In response, India has reverted to its default strategy of 'hedging'," explained a strategic analyst. "It signals to the US that it has other choices and is waiting to see how the situation unfolds."

Beyond global diplomacy, India's core motivation with Russia is its strategic location. "Beijing remains the greatest threat to India, and for decades, India has relied on Russia as a continental balancer against China," the analyst added.

The strengthening partnership between Russia and China has caused concern in Delhi, leading to efforts to prevent an unbreakable bond between its northern neighbor and its traditional ally.

This apprehension has also spurred India's drive to diversify its military imports, decreasing its reliance on Russian equipment from about 70% to under 40% in recent years.

"India will attempt to strike a balance: purchase enough Russian weaponry to maintain the alliance, but not become overly reliant that a sudden cutoff would leave it vulnerable," the analyst concluded.

Energy and Economic Ties

Enhanced economic cooperation is expected to be a major topic. President Putin has recently emphasized plans to take cooperation with India to a "higher plane", defying Western sanctions.

The matter of crude oil imports is pivotal. While the Indian government has vowed to keep buying Russian oil, recent restrictions have dampened activity from the private sector. Simultaneously, India has moved to increase imports of American oil and gas.

A Kremlin spokesperson acknowledged "hurdles" in energy trade but said it would continue uninterrupted. The official downplayed the impact of sanctions, stating they would cause only "insignificant" and "brief" disruptions and that Russia possesses the "means" to bypass such measures.

Limited Leverage on Ukraine

As talks proceed, the issue of Ukraine is likely to be mentioned primarily through India's standard call for a peaceful resolution.

"While the Indian leader has access to all parties, the nation does not possess the diplomatic clout to alter the course of the war," the analyst noted. "Beyond encouraging talks, its ability to effect change is limited."

In the end, notwithstanding the visible friendship between the two leaders, the relationship is at its core one of "pure realpolitik," driven by cold calculation in a rapidly changing world.